Here is a snapshot of the current Brisbane industrial property market (updated January 2021)
The Trade Coast industrial precinct is the second largest business precinct in Brisbane following the CBD. The Trade Coast area was formed circa 2000 in an effort to commercialise significant and well located unused land surround the Brisbane area and the Port of Brisbane. The area targets several key industry sectors and has quickly grown as one of the most significant business areas of the city.
The southern industrial pocket located just 11 km south of the CBD, comprises the suburbs of Acacia Ridge, Archerfield, Coopers Plains, Salisbury and Rocklea. This is an older traditional industrial location which has long been popular due to its accessibility and surrounding amenity, however is beginning to lose favour to some of the more modern and emerging industrial areas.
Brisbane’s Western Corridor comprises the regionally significant industrial area in Brisbane’s south-west incorporating Carole Park, Darra, Sumner, Wacol and Richlands. This area extending out to Ipswich has seen substantial industrial development with many new industrial estates utilising cheaper land creating modern A grade facilities suited to large industrial users. The area also benefits from fantastic road infrastructure and networks, and booming population growth in surrounding areas. It has become a major manufacturing hub. Moving further west into the Ipsiwch region, with a large percentage of the available/developable industrial land in South East Queensland, this region is experiencing growth across many industries including aerospace, manufacturing, food processing, and transport. Ipswich is home to Australia’s largest master-planned industrial development, Citiswich.
One of the fastest growing industrial precincts – the Logan Motorway Corridor is another region of new industrial land development. The area is home to many large industrial users in major facilities.
The area consists of Crestmead, Marsden, Browns Plains, Meadowbrook, Berrinba, Loganlea, Loganholme, Heathwood and Larapinta.
A traditional industrial area similar to the south industrial pocket comprises mostly older style industrial buildings ranging from small to larger facilities.
The area consits of Banyo, Geebung, Northgate, Virginia, Zillmere and Brendale.
There area is traditionally quite tightly held with few properties for sale.
The northern growth corridor comprises the suburbs of North lakes, Narangba, Burpengary & Deception Bay.
Brisbane’s Northern Growth Corridor is home to a large and rapidly-growing resident population of about 390,000 in Brisbane’s neighbouring Moreton Bay Region, which is expected to grow to about 622,000 by 2031.
The area has an established and growing economy with supporting transport infrastructure, services to transport, and wholesale trade, and suppliers to support the growth of industries in manufacturing, construction and related sectors.
The Northern Growth Corridor is close to major infrastructure such as Brisbane Airport and the Port of Brisbane and a six-lane highway. Freight and passenger rail also traverses the area. The availability and affordability of commercial and industrial land in the Northern Growth Corridor will continue to create opportunities for businesses wanting to invest in a base from which to service markets in South East Queensland and beyond.
Brisbane industrial sale and leaseback transactions continue to go from strength to strength during the pandemic, reaching $272 million between January and September 2020. This upward trend is expected to continue over the next 12-18 months as a strategy offering tangible financial benefits to industrial operators seeking capital to support expansion and investors in need of safe returns.
As the risk profile of several real estate asset classes has increased during the pandemic, industrial investment demand has shown resilience, particularly for prime assets offering long-term secured WALE. As a result of the increasing competition from investors, we have seen average prime yields in Brisbane and Yatala compressing by about 25 basis points over the past three to six months.
Net face rents and incentives have held generally steady over the past year, with the exception of the ATC wherein market evidence demonstrates a moderate contraction of rents and an increase in incentives for prime grade assets.
The South and South West precincts have become the fastest growing industrial markets in Greater Brisbane, potentially addingbetween 60-80% of the new development supply in 2020 and 2021.
Average land values of $321/sqm have held steady over the past 12months across all precincts. We expect land values will hold firmlyover the next 12-18 months. Beyond this period, our expectationsare for land values to follow a moderate upward trend, with the ATCleading the growth due to the limited freehold land available for development
Prime net face rents : $100 – $150/ m2 (higher end $150/m2 in the Trade Coast region specifically – $120/m2 high on south side)
Secondary net face rents: $65 – $110/m2
Incentives: 5 – 18% (less in Trade Coast/North)
Outgoings: $15 – $30 / m2
Rental growth is expected over the next 12 months with a view of a strengthening economy moving into the post covid world in the years ahead. In turn, incentives are expected to potentially stabilise and in time decrease.
The current market has created a wider disparity between prime and secondary stock as investors compensate for the increased risk profile of secondary stock. Prime investment yields have remained stable as investors are drawn to concrete tilt panel buildings in locations with good access to major motorways, ports and airports. Yields typically range from 5.5% to 7.0% for these assets depending on the length of time remaining on the lease and the quality of the tenant.
Prime Industrial Yields: 5.2% – 6.75%
Secondary Industrial Yields: 7% – 8.25%
Capital values / m2 of building area:
Prime $1,700 – 2,500/m2
Secondary $900 – $1,550/m2
Despite what were uncertain market conditions in 2020, developers continued to support development activity. In 2021, industrial completions across Brisbane are set to potentially total 420,000 sqm (projects under construction or already complete), moderately above the 375,000 sqm of new supply added in 2019 and again in 2020.
SURGE IN ONLINE RETAIL
The pandemic has accelerated the rate of growth for online retail sales as restrictions on movement forced consumers to buy online. Long term, these buying habits are expected to be permanent as consumers become accustomed to the simplicity of online shopping.
There has been a rapid shift to online retail sales with growth of 31.9% in the year to June 2020, up from 13.6% in January. By proportion, online retail accounted for 9.7% of total retail sales in June compared to 6.1% a year ago.
COLD STORAGE SECTOR A FOCUS FOR INSTITUTIONS
Off the back of heightened demand for food logistics, institutional interest in the cold storage sector has grown significantly. Growing interest stems from the defensive and resilient nature of these assets, often backed by a long WALE of 10+ years.
VACANCY RATES REMAIN LOW
Despite leasing demand softening at the depths of COVID-19, industrial vacancy rates across the country remain low and will keep pressure on face rents. A modest rise in vacancy rates is expected in H2 2020, underpinned by a rise in sublease vacancy.
DATA CENTRE INTEREST GROWING
The lockdown period and the large-scale work-from-home orders in response to COVID-19 has elevated demand for data centres as cloud storage requirements have grown rapidly.
SUPPLY LEVELS TO SOFTEN
Industrial supply levels in some capital cities have been impacted as several speculative developments have been paused. Sydney has been hardest hit while Melbourne has not been impacted to the same extent as the bulk of supply to be delivered in 2020 is either under construction or have secured a pre-commitment.
GROWTH IN ‘HUB & SPOKE’ FACILITIES NEAR URBAN LOCATIONS
With occupiers seeking to move inventories closer to consumers and the potential to use automation to reduce the physical footprint of logistics spaces, there has been growing interest in small-scale facilities
designed to aid last-mile logistics near major cities.
ADOPTION OF AN OMNICHANNEL APPROACH Retailers have moved quickly to strengthen their online presence and e-commerce platforms and blur the boundaries between these and physical stores. In recent months, we have seen Woolworths and Amazon among others commit to new facilities to drive their online and automation capabilities.
EMERGENCE OF FLEXIBLE WAREHOUSE OPTIONS
Co-warehousing and other flexible warehousing options are being explored in Australia to help cater towards large fluctuations in demand and a shortage of viable space in key markets.
FACE RENTS TO REMAIN STEADY AT THE EXPENSE OF INCENTIVES
Notwithstanding the short-term impacts during 2020, macro drivers for industrial and logistics tenancy demand such as growth in e-commerce and infrastructure investment continue to support leasing activity while there remains a significant weight of capital seeking assets within the sector.